Optimism price

Author: Cole, vernacular blockchain In the crypto world, "coin issuance" can always detonate the market. When Coinbase, the industry's most compliant "regular army" incubated by the Layer 2 network Base, shifted from a stance of "never issuing coins" to "exploring", everyone understood that a big drama was about to unfold. This is not only another token issuance, but also a well-thought-out strategic scheme by Coinbase to transform Base from a traffic portal into an economic center capable of self-hematopoiesis. Will this token that has not yet been born be the "rocket fuel" that ignited the bull market, or another capital story that "peaks when it goes online"? To answer this question, we must delve into the fabric of Base and dissect the vulnerabilities behind its glossy data. 01 From "NO" to "YES" - Why does Base have to issue coins? Once upon a time, Base was a breath of fresh air in the Layer 2 world, and its leadership repeatedly emphasized that it had no plans to issue coins. However, the wind has changed. Base founder Jesse Pollak and Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong have now publicly stated that the team is "exploring the issuance of native tokens" and believe that this is an excellent tool to accelerate decentralization and ecological growth. The official reason given is grandiose and "politically correct": to achieve complete decentralization of the network. Currently, Base's core sequencer is still centrally controlled by Coinbase, and issuing tokens can attract independent nodes to participate through incentive mechanisms, which is the only way to move towards true decentralization. This technology-oriented rhetoric not only aligns with the spirit of the crypto world, but also provides a "compliant" shield against regulatory scrutiny. However, the data reveals another harsher reality: Base is facing severe capital outflows. Data shows that in the past three quarters, Base's net outflow has reached $4.6 billion, mainly flowing back to the Ethereum mainnet. This shows that although Base has successfully attracted a large number of users with Coinbase's traffic, especially in the meme coin and SocialFi craze, it lacks "user stickiness". Capital is like a mercenary, coming and going in a hurry. Base risks becoming a low-cost "transit point". Meanwhile, its competitors Arbitrum and Optimism have already built strong economic moats with tokens. Therefore, Base issuance is not so much a philosophical evolution as a necessity for survival. Its core economic goal is only one: anchoring capital. Through token incentives, speculative "tourists" are transformed into long-term "residents", building a self-reinforcing economic closed loop. 02 A Song of Ice and Fire - Base Ecological Panoramic Scan To understand the power of Base tokens, we must first look at where they are today. On-chain data paints a picture of ice and fire: user activity is in full swing, but capital depth is relatively calm. Statistically, Base is undoubtedly the top player. Its TVL exceeds $5 billion. But the most amazing thing is its transaction processing power, with an average TPS of 148.77, far exceeding Arbitrum's 22.49. The network has nearly one million daily active addresses, and the annualized network revenue is expected to reach $75 million. These data clearly reveal the uniqueness of Base: it is an undisputed giant in terms of user activity, but it is still a catch-up in terms of capital volume. Base has solved the "how to get people to come" problem, and now it needs to solve the "how to get people to stay" problem with tokens. Base's application ecosystem presents a peculiar "leverage structure". On the one end are multi-chain giants such as Uniswap and Aave, which contribute most of the TVL. On the other end of the spectrum are the vibrant meme coins. The most strategic value is the "native protocols" sandwiched in the middle - they are the real moat of Base and the core goal of future token incentives. DeFi: In the decentralized finance space, Base's native automated market maker (AMM), Aerodrome Finance, is rising at an astonishing rate, with a TVL of over $1.1 billion, aiming to become Base's central liquidity hub. In the lending market, the native protocol SeamlessFi has also emerged. SocialFi: This is Base's unique trump card. The emergence of phenomenal application Friend.tech has not only brought sky-high traffic to Base, but also created a new on-chain social monetization model. In addition, the decentralized social protocol Farcaster is also thriving here. Games and NFTs: The track is still in its early stages and has not yet become a hit. However, Base's low-gas fee environment is the best soil for on-chain game development, and the native token can serve as a catalyst to attract top game studios to settle in. 03 Redistribution of wealth – who will be the biggest winner? The issuance of Base tokens will be an unprecedented redistribution of wealth. Ecological protocols: For native protocols such as Aerodrome and SeamlessFi, the Base token will be their "ammunition" to compete head-on with multi-chain giants. Users and Community: Issuing coins will bring wealth effects, and tokens will also empower community governance, fostering a deep sense of ownership. Base Network: The token vault will free Base from dependence on Coinbase and become a public good capable of self-hematopoietic and self-development. Coinbase: This is probably the best part. Currently, Base contributes less than 1% of Coinbase's total revenue to its direct revenue. However, a fully diluted valuation (FDV) of a Base token can reach tens of billions of dollars. This means that Coinbase is playing a clever capital magic: giving up a meager operating income in exchange for a huge asset worth tens of billions of dollars. Through coin issuance and decentralization, Coinbase not only avoids regulatory risks but also turns a small profit into a huge asset. 04 Summary Base exploration issuance is a deliberate strategic necessity. It marks Base's transition from a successful "traffic acquisition machine" to a self-sustaining "on-chain economy". Will Base's issuance be like Arbitrum, creating heat with a "big bang" of coin issuance, but it may also trigger a catastrophic sell-off? Or will it be like Optimism, through a phased and re-narrative approach, to smoothly guide the market and lead the community's attention to long-term construction? Given Base's strong ties to Coinbase and its "compliance first" stance, the latter seems more likely. No matter which path you choose, Base has a trump card in hand: the massive retail users brought by Coinbase and the unique SocialFi ecosystem. For all participants in the crypto world, this drama deserves your close attention.