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"Whenever we hear 'this time is different,' the cycle ultimately proves that 'it's not different.'" Every four years, the Bitcoin market follows an extremely consistent rhythm, and it's a Bitcoin's native code that shapes this rhythm: the halving of mining rewards. Approximately every 210,000 blocks, the network cuts the mining reward in half, slowing down the supply (deflation). Historically, each halving has led to the same sequence: accumulation → parabolic pull-up→ speculative peak → crash and recovery. ● 2012–2014: The first halving kicked off Bitcoin's earliest real bull run, pushing the price from double digits to over $1,000, followed by the Mt. Gox collapse and crash that marked the first major bear market. ● 2016–2018: The second halving led to a super frenzy and ICO bubble in 2017, followed by a bear market in 2018 triggered by regulatory crackdowns in China and a flood of token issuance. ● 2020–2022: The third halving ushered in the "institutional era" of cryptocurrencies – MicroStrategy, Tesla, and ETF entry – and peaked in 2021. This was followed by the collapse of 2022, fueled by a series of thunderstorms from LUNA, Three Arrows Capital (3AC), and FTX. ● 2024-to-Date: The most recent halving occurred on April 19, 2024, slashing the block reward to 3.125 BTC. We are now in the middle of the fourth cycle. The pattern repeats so precisely that some analysts estimate that market peaks typically occur within 12-18 months after each halving, around the middle of a 4-year cycle. We believe that this cyclical cycle comes from the native logic of Bitcoin and the characteristics of the cryptocurrency industry: We've long heard of "this time it's different" - the unrealized "supercycle" If the saying "cycle is dead" sounds familiar, it's because we've experienced it before. During the 2020-2021 bull market, the crypto industry collectively advocated the so-called "Supercycle" argument - that is, Bitcoin and various leading cryptocurrencies have matured and moved away from their "skyrocketing" characteristics and we will "only rise and fall" (up only). Protocol advancements in blockchain technology, as well as the unprecedented liquidity that has erupted in sectors such as NFTs, GameFi, and DeFi, seem to prove that "this time is different." This argument seemed plausible at the time. Tesla added Bitcoin to its balance sheet, Musk shouted for Dogecoin (DOGE) on live TV, and the "diamond hand" was a proud title, and retail investors were making money. DeFi and NFTs are rewriting the way on-chain finance is played. Many KOLs predict that with so many new players and new applications, Bitcoin and even the leading altcoins will no longer suffer the sharp drawdown of the 70% level in the past. But the "supercycle" is ultimately unsustainable due to its own overheating. What followed was a grim reminder that revealed the deep-seated entrainment of crypto cycles: the LUNA/UST death spiral, the liquidation of Three Arrows Capital, and the bankruptcy of FTX, erasing hundreds of billions of market capitalization, even sending Bitcoin plummeting nearly 80% from its highs. Today, a more subtle optimism of the same kind is back; With spot ETFs, institutional inflows, and deeper liquidity, the market seems to have finally moved away from the "boom-bust" rhythm. But history rarely exits so easily. That confidence at the peak of 2021 is echoing again. Why cycles still exist - the structural logic of cryptocurrencies Even with ETF inflows and Wall Street's infrastructure, cryptocurrencies are still a deeply cyclical industry by design. The expansion mechanism of cryptocurrencies makes it inevitable. When market sentiment turned bullish, new coins (local dog plates) emerged overnight, with project parties easily raising millions and liquidity pouring into perpetual contracts and leverage. This explosion of issuance and leverage has driven prices up – until they can't be pushed. The trading volume of cryptocurrency perpetual contracts is absolutely dominant, which means that price action is not only subject to real demand, but also by the liquidation mechanism. High leverage makes pulling a pan seem effortless, while a crash is catastrophic. The reflexivity of the industry – that is, the narrative boosts the price and the price feeds back the narrative – ensures that the market is overstretched. Ultimately, the new supply of tokens (unlocked/added), the dilution of attention, and the fatigue of excessive leverage erode momentum. When the "last takeover" disappears, the structural features that built the rally begin to reverse. This built-in feedback loop ensures that cryptocurrencies cannot escape cycles – they are the embodiment of cycles themselves. Bitcoin today - underperforming mainstream assets and the hidden rift We believe the cycle is still working its magic, and there is an "invisible hand" behind price action for the following reasons: Despite positive news such as spot ETF approvals in 2025, institutional inflows, and record highs in gold and stock prices, Bitcoin has underperformed almost all other major assets. The only plausible explanation seems to be Bitcoin's 4-year cycle. ● Stocks in the US, China, South Korea, and Japan are up about 20-30% year-to-date (YTD), driven by easing global liquidity and inflation concerns. ● Gold has hit record highs, rising 50% year-to-date, solidifying its safe-haven position. ● In contrast, Bitcoin is only up about 9% year-to-date and has yet to break its previous high in 2021. If the cycle is really over, Bitcoin should have led this "risk-on" environment, not lagging in performance. Its relative weakness means that we are approaching the final phase of the cycle – cooling and recovery. Further evidence is that the crypto ecosystem is once again showing internal "cracks," signaling a deep pullback that is only within the crypto market. On October 10-11, 2025, the crypto market suffered the largest liquidation cascade in history, erasing nearly $19 billion in leveraged positions within 24 hours. Market makers and Prop Desks were forced to unwind their positions, triggering a full-blown flash crash for altcoins. A few weeks later, Stream Finance, a DeFi protocol with a TVL (total amount locked) of hundreds of millions, disclosed $93 million in losses, froze withdrawals, and its xUSD stablecoin crashed by more than 70%. These are not macro shocks. They are crypto-native fractures that surface when leverage, complacency, and cyclical fatigue converge – just like past cycles. The cycle will continue – an unpopular perspective We advise traders to consider an alternative perspective: what if the established crypto cycle still holds? Each halving still matters. Every bull market still tends to be excessive. Each plunge still provides a reset (wash). Bitcoin's recent performance and the reappearance of structural cracks may not be anomalous – they may just confirm that the underlying rhythm is intact. Whether the next explosive pull is in six months or a year, the same internal logic may still guide it. And when the market insists again that "this time is different", the historical cycle may provide a strong counterargument, quietly and predictably.   Recommended reading: $1 billion in stablecoins evaporate, the truth behind DeFi explosions? MMT Short Squeeze Event Review: A well-designed money game Under the savage harvest, who is looking forward to the next COAI?   Click to learn more about ChainCatcher's job openings