Ordinals price

At the beginning of 2022, especially after the peak of the bull market at the end of 2021, many people in the cryptocurrency circle (including institutional investors, analysts, and KOLs) believed that this round would not enter a traditional bear market, but would enter a "supercycle", and prices would continue to rise or at least not plummet by 80%-90%. Their core logic is "this time is different", and here are some of the most mainstream bases at the time (these views were widely disseminated on platforms such as Twitter, Reddit, CoinDesk, and Moneyweb in 2021-early 2022): 1. Institutional adoption of explosive growth, demand will never dry up In 2021, companies such as MicroStrategy, Tesla, and Square hoarded Bitcoin on a large scale, and institutional funds continued to flow in through Grayscale and futures ETFs. People think that institutions are "smart money" and they don't panic sell like retail investors, but hold them for a long time. This provides permanent buying support and prevents a bear market from forming. Typical statement: Ryan Allis (Partner at HeartRithm) posted in January 2022 that "we may be in a Bitcoin supercycle, not a bear market cycle." 2. Bitcoin's dominance rate has declined, and other chains/ecosystems are in full bloom BTC accounted for 70% of the market during the bull market in 2017, and dropped to 40% in 2021. L1 chains such as Ethereum, Solana, and Avalanche have risen, and DeFi, NFT, GameFi, and Metaverse have rotated funds between different narratives. Logic: The money will not all leave the market, it will only flow from one hot spot to another, and the entire crypto market will "circulate internally" to avoid a systemic collapse. 3. DeFi high yields replace traditional wealth management DeFi annualized rate of 12%-18%, far exceeding banks' 0%-3%. It is believed that in the era of low interest rates, global funds will continue to pour into crypto to earn "real income". Typical view: In January 2022, Revix analyst Brett Hope Robertson publicly supported the supercycle theory, saying, "DeFi opens up new opportunities for yield hunters." 4. The macro environment is super friendly: inflation + unlimited money printing The US inflation in 2021 is 7% (a 40-year high), and the Bitcoin inflation rate is only 1.4%, which is regarded as "digital gold + anti-inflation assets". The Federal Reserve has unlimited QE in 2020-2021, and global liquidity is flooded, and everyone thinks that "there is so much money that there is nowhere to go, it can only flow into Bitcoin". 5. Evidence of the breaking of historical cycles Past laws: the second year after the halving (2013, 2017) rose sharply, and the third year (2014, 2018) was a bear market. After rising to 69,000 in 2021, it only pulled back by 30%-40%, and many people believe that it has "broken out of the 4-year cycle and entered a sustainable bull market". Dan Held, Willy Woo and other big Vs have repeatedly promoted "supercycle" in 2021. Reality: The supercycle theory collapsed collectively in May 2022→ the Terra/Luna thunderstorm→ Three Arrows Capital liquidated Celsius and BlockFi suspended withdrawals→ FTX collapsed, and a series of dominoes wiped out $2 trillion in the market. Bitcoin fell from 69,000 to 15,000 (-78%), and Ethereum fell from 4,800 to 880 (-82%), completely entering the crypto winter of 2022. Even Su Zhu (founder of Three Arrows Capital), who was the first to call supercycle, tweeted in May 2022: "My supercycle price theory is unfortunately wrong. ” Lesson: Every time the bull market peaks, someone shouts "this round is different", but the cycle of greed→ leverage→ black swans→ panic selling has never been broken. The "super cycle dream" in 2022 eventually turned into the most tragic bear market, which also made countless people deeply realize that the cycle always exists, but the length and depth will change due to new variables. From Grok's summary.