EIGEN Unlocks: Upward or Drawdowns? The $EIGEN token unlock structure makes it difficult to create immediate selling pressure. Why did I say this? @eigenlayer launched a year ago, and EIGEN became transferable on the 30th September, 2024. Investors, early contributors, and service providers had a one-year lock, with 4% allocation released each month after the cliff. The funds are not fully unlocked until three years after transferability by design. But what is the problem? The unlocks are now starting. Investors hold approximately $493.73M EIGEN at 29.5%. Early contributors hold ~$426.78M EIGEN at 25.5%. The actual problem is what is coming next year, 2026 to 2027. We need to determine if the market can absorb the supply overhang to a positive outcome. The data says: ~$199.60M EIGEN will be released for stakedrops. ~$183.18M EIGEN will be released for future community. ~$251.05M EIGEN will be released for R&D. Can the market absorb all these? The answer depends on the mechanism design for supply shocks. What do we have? First, we have a current demand to point to. EigenCloud TVL hit ~$28.6B with 70% market share in September. On the same page, the TVL is at ~$19.7B given the current market situation. They are making sure the infrastructure attracts capital despite the token downprice (up 11% in the last 24hrs btw). What is required is absorbing the unlocks into a market that can price in demand. Second, NEW money, new demand. On October 28, SharpLink deposited $200M in ETH into EigenLayer as part of an institutional setup. I'd hope more inflows continue to price in to ensure that the slow monetary flow soaks up the monthly unlocks in a price-agnostic frame, coming in tranches. Finally, we already know supply will be heavier. We also already know the protocol is pushing new surfaces to increase liquidity inflows, ensuring that demand absorbs supply and brings the market back to equilibrium. Currently, we have the Boundless integration and AP2/x402. So the unlocks are not automatically bearish. They are only bearish if demand slows while supply becomes predictable and heavy. Right now, the team is clearly trying to stay ahead of that. What do you think will break first? Demand growth or market patience? Data image from @Tokenomist_ai.

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